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Risk-Taking and Discipline

In The Risk Paradox on March 9, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

While preparing for a webinar for human resources professionals I’ll be delivering later today, at the request of the client I was focused on ways to avoid worst-case HR scenarios.

The first method I’ll be offering for avoiding major problems are an awareness of the five primary reasons for bad outcomes as drawn from the interviews with forty athlete/executives when we were writing Business Lessons from the Edge.

The second method is a tool called Contingency Thinking, which is also from Business Lessons from the Edge.  Contingency Thinking centers on thinking through in advance how you will handle a difficult situation, should it occur.  You can readily see how this would be a popular strategy for successful business people who are also accomplished extreme athletes.

The third device is something that is familiar to anyone who has been following this blog, Intelligent Risk-Taking, which is from my book The Power of Risk.  Intelligent Risk-Taking involves taking six specific steps that have the effect of increasing the chances of a desirable outcome and decrease the chances of an undesirable outcome for any risk or initiative.

The interesting commonality that surfaced while preparing for the webinar is that is that both Contingency Thinking and Intelligent Risk-Taking require discipline to be effective – the discipline to apply them faithfully.

This almost falls into the category of counter-intuitive.  The common perception is that talented risk-takers are impulsive.  The opposite is true.  Talented risk-takers are actually methodical and disciplined.

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Risking Without Failing

In The Risk Paradox on February 22, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , , , ,

Risking without failing – sounds like a nice option.  Where do I sign up?  How would your risk profile change if you were assured you could not fail?  Significantly, no doubt.

In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece dated yesterday, former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt makes a persuasive case for updating regulation of the financial markets.  His core argument is “when people take risks and don’t anticipate failure, they take greater risks and the resulting failure becomes far more damaging.”

It may be the dark side of the risk-taking equation, but the option of failure is critical to risking intelligently.  While intelligent risk-taking is all about risking wisely and judiciously so as to maximize the chances of an acceptable outcome, the specter of failure is the source of the discipline that fuels the process.  If the option of failure is gone, why bother to be intelligent about the process?

Risk-taking failure:  to be respected, acknowledged and avoided.

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Rewarded and Unrewarded Risks

In The Risk Paradox on February 17, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , , ,

I was recently made aware of an excellent paper on risk that includes some fresh insights.  The paper is titled The Two Faces of Risk – Cultivating Risk Intelligence for Competitive Advantage, was written by Steve Wagner and Mark Layton and is available at DeloitteReviews.com.  I recommend it.

 One of the more thoughtful insights presented in the paper is the concept of rewarded and unrewarded risks.

Unrewarded risks are similar to the concept of chosen risks as discussed in my last post.  Unrewarded risks are the risks that have to be taken to function.  They are focused on “value protection, not value creation.”  They are the price of being in the game, if you will.  And I will add that since they are mandatory in nature that they are often not seen as taken risks.

Rewarded risks, as presented by Wagner and Layton, are risks that have the potential to create value and are likely strategic in nature.  These are similar to the optional risks as presented in my last post and in my book The Power of Risk (Maxwell Press).

The power of labeling the risks an unrewarded and rewarded is profound because it speaks directly to the motivation for taking them, of necessity and by choice, respectively.  The concept also plays into a point I make often being that both organizations and individuals are risking more than they often perceive.  It is the price of admission to what we call business and life.

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The Spectrum of All Risks

In The Risk Paradox on February 8, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

All the risks that an organization or an individual can take fall into three categories.  In my book, The Power of Risk (Maxwell Press), I present them from left to right on a continuum as Chosen, Optional and Avoided Risks.  In the aggregate, they are labeled as the Spectrum of All Risks.

Chosen Risks are those that are required for an organization or person to function.  For a manufacturing company, simply producing a product and accepting the liability it creates is a chosen risk.  For a person, driving a car is an example.

Optional Risks are not mandatory to function but still taken.  For a company, this could be introducing a new project, for a person engaging in some form of recreation.

Avoided Risks are those that an organization or person is not currently taking.  Examples include a company acquiring another company and a person changing careers.

There are a number of points made by this concept.  Chosen risks make the point that some risks have to be taken if an organization or person is to function at all.  We sometimes forget that we are taking risks of some sort constantly.  Optional risks are the ones we take by choice likely motivated by a potential reward.  Avoided risks are where opportunity lies.  They are the risks not currently taken but they’re always candidates.  Finally, risks can regularly move back and forth between optional and avoided.  Whether a risk falls into one category or the other is a function of organizational or personal risk posture at that moment.

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Exxon Wagers $31 Billion on Gas Deal

In The Risk Paradox on January 25, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

The headline above ran recently in the Wall Street Journal.  Kudos to the headline writer.  “Wagers” is exactly the right word.  Investing such a massive amount is indeed a bet – a gamble.

Some would say, “How can that possibly be justified!  What responsible company would put such an enormous amount of capital at risk?  How irresponsible.”  And anyone making that statement would be entirely wrong.

All of business is about taking and managing risks – intelligent risk-taking.  Successful business people do it well.  Unsuccessful business people do it poorly.

From a solo entrepreneur to a global corporation, whether they succeed or fail boils down to how well they risk their capital, resources and time in order to get a return.

Shareholders pay corporate leaders to take risks.  If they become too risk averse, their returns will decline and they will be replaced.  If they become risk inclined to the point that their risks yield poor results, the same outcome will occur.  Intelligent risk-taking is about finding the balance point between excessive risk aversion and excessive risk inclination, then executing well. 

Some people manage significant risks well.  This is what inspired me to write my latest book, Business Lessons from the Edge.  I was intrigued to see what forty successful business people who are also accomplished extreme athletes had to say about taking risks well.  In summary, they remind us that a risk-free life does not exist on a personal level, nor in a business setting – for long.

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Regulators Talk Risk-Based Compensation

In The Risk Paradox on January 18, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , , , , ,

 Think for a moment about this recent statement by the Chairperson of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair:

“A broad consensus of academic studies agrees that poorly designed compensation structures can misalign incentives and induce risk-taking.”

There are two observations this brings to mind.  The first is that this conclusion seems profoundly obvious.  As any accomplished manager will tell you on the subject of incentive compensation, you get what you incentivize – which is why incentive compensation plans need to be designed very thoughtfully and are often modified.  That is straight forward.  It seems odd that it took a number of academic studies to establish this fairly obvious conclusion.

The second observation is that risk-taking is presented in this statement as a negative outcome.  One more time with fervor; risk-taking is not the problem. Poor risk-taking is the problem.

In the midst of many well-intentioned efforts to reduce the chances of future turmoil in the U.S. financial system, we need to keep foremost in our mind that risk-taking is core of our economic system.  We need to be very cautious in trying to regulate the risk instinct.  It has served us all well much more often than it has worked against us.

Most of all, we need to always differentiate between intelligent risk-taking and excessive, ill-considered or poorly executed risk-taking.  We need to allow the former to thrive or we will all pay the price

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Risking Intelligently by Reducing Risk

In The Risk Paradox on January 4, 2010 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

The whole concept of intelligent risk-taking is to make risk work to your benefit.  There are two sides to that equation.  One is to reduce risk when possible.  The other is to exploit risk when appropriate.  Due to our socialization, we tend to be more comfortable reducing risk. 

A news story just came out on Human Resource Executive Online that illustrates risking intelligently by reducing risks.  It focuses on companies re-hiring former employees as they increase their staffing.  The story reports that nine out of ten companies are open to rehiring former employees and that 18 percent of laid-off workers are rehired by their former employers.

This is an excellent strategy for reducing risk.  In my most recent book Business Lessons from the Edge (McGraw-Hill 2009), we emphasize the criticality of hiring decisions and the imperative that short cuts not be taken in the hiring process.  The brilliance of selectively rehiring former employees is that you know exactly what you’re getting.  They have functioned in the culture and clearly illustrated their talents and limitations.  A great deal of the risk that is inherent in the hiring process is eliminated.

One of the athlete/executives who contributed to Business Lessons from the Edge is employee engagement expert and HR Solutions CEO Kevin Sheridan.  Among other things, HR Solutions helps companies improve employee engagement.  What is one of the biggest problems they find in their client organizations?  Negative impacts on employee engagement due to poor hiring decisions.  Hence the value of selectively rehiring past employees – fewer hiring mistakes.

The referenced story on Human Resource Executive Online by Melvin Scales can be found at:  http://www.hreonline.com/HRE/story.jsp?storyId=312960252

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Intelligent Risk-Taking Illustrated – Warren Buffett’s Moves During the Financial Crisis

In The Risk Paradox on December 18, 2009 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

What do Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns, AIG, Wachovia and Freddie Mac all have in common?  If you said they are all (or were) in the financial services industry, you would be right.  If you said they all struggled or went out of business during the recent U.S. financial crisis, you would also be correct.  But what you may not have known is that during the last few years, they all offered investor Warren Buffett opportunities to make significant equity or debt investments that he declined. 

What’s the insight here?  As a very successful investor who has been in the market for over sixty years, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett is clearly in a league of his own when it comes to picking winners and avoiding losers.  Is he always right?  Of course not.  Is he right more often than not?  Yes. 

According to a December 12, 2009 Wall Street Journal article, when approached by all these companies, Buffett personally reviewed their financial information.  Why is this important?  It is a classic example of intelligent risk-taking.  He did his research and drew on insights gained from past experiences. 

You might say that declining every opportunity is easy and you would be right.  But that is not what Buffett did.  During the same time period, he took advantage of opportunities he was presented to invest in or purchase Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, Goldman Sachs and General Electric. 

So how does this illustrate intelligent risk-taking?  In two ways.  First, Buffett did significant research so he knew what he was considering.  Second, he drew on past experience and hard earned insights.  An example was his review of mortgage giant Freddie Mac.  He quickly concluded that their problems where too severe.  “I said no fast on that one,” was his comment on that opportunity. 

You might be thinking that anyone with money to invest during the last few years could have done well with so many companies undervalued due to the global downturn.  However, that is not the case.  TPG made a disastrous $1.35 billion investment in Washington Mutual Inc. and investors in Abu Dhabi invested billions of dollars Citigroup before their share price plummeted.

Was every decision Buffett made during the financial crisis correct.  No.  But be being thoughtful and methodical, he appears to have risked intelligently. 

Some blame risk-taking for the recent economic downturn.  To them I would say there is risk-taking and intelligent risk-taking.  The former gives the later an undeserved bad name.

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The Risk Overhang – Which Can Lead to the Risk Hangover

In The Risk Paradox on November 20, 2009 by Jim McCormick Tagged: ,

As discussed in the last post, corporate, organizational and personal risk profiles are dynamic and situational.  Dynamic in that they change often.  By the nature of organizations having a more gradual decision-making process than individuals, their risk profile change less often.  Individuals, on the other hand, may change their risk-profile much more often based on successes, set-backs, access to capital, financial security – or lack of it – and countless other variables.

 A Reuters article today on the British banking system makes the comment that there is a “tendency for banks to become overly risk-seeking in an upswing and risk-averse in a downswing.” 

 This is accurate and affirms both that risk-inclination is situational and organizational decision-making is often gradual.  Call it the risk overhang, which can lead to the risk hangover.  It is a function of excess.  Excessive risk-inclination during the upswings.  Excessive risk-aversion during the downswings.  A risk posture that is no longer in alignment with the business and economic environment.  It overhangs the change in conditions.

 It is all a matter of balance – or lack of it.  A successful risk posture always is.

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House Panel Debates Systemic-Risk Measure

In The Risk Paradox on November 9, 2009 by Jim McCormick Tagged: , , , ,

So read the headline in the November 5 Wall Street Journal.  The House Financial Services Committee is trying to divine a way to prevent future failures of large financial institutions while not hobbling them to the point of being ineffective. 

I think we would all agree that finding that balance point is a daunting challenge.  Why?  Intelligent risk-taking is conditional.  Whether it is a large financial institution, a small business or an individual, the appropriate risk posture at any given time is always changing.  It is influenced by numerous factors including availability of capital and talent.  The risk characteristics of existing organizational or personal commitments are also a factor.  Market conditions and the competitive environment should and do influence risk posture.  This is just the beginning of the factors that shape an appropriate risk posture. 

With in being so changeable, legislating an appropriate risk threshold is exceedingly difficult.  There is no way that all permutations of conditions can be addressed or even anticipated.  And we haven’t even gotten to the innate discomfort with risk that may be present in some of the legislators and could profoundly influence their approach to regulating risk. 

Risk is powerful and can be frightening.  But we have to find a way to live with it and utilize it or we all will suffer by its suppression.